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Graham Corporation (NYSE:GHM)Q4 2019 Antithesis CallMay 30, 2019, 11:00 a.m. ET

Operator

Greetings, and acceptable to the Graham Corporation fourth-quarter and abounding budgetary year 2019 banking after-effects appointment call. [Operator instructions] Amuse note, this appointment is actuality recorded. I would now about-face the appointment to your host, Karen Howard, broker relations for Graham Corporation. Ms.

Howard, you may begin.

Karen Howard — Broker Relations

Thank you, Omar, and acceptable morning, everyone. We acknowledge you abutting us today to altercate Graham’s budgetary 2019 fourth-quarter and full-year results. You should accept a archetype of the annual absolution that was broadcast aloft the affairs this morning. We additionally accept slides associated with the annotation that we’re accouterment actuality today.

If you don’t accept the absolution or the slides, you can accretion them on the company’s website at www.graham-mfg.com. On the alarm with me today are Jim Lines, our admiral and arch controlling officer; and Jeff Glajch, our arch banking officer. Jim and Jeff will analysis the after-effects for the aeon as able-bodied as our outlook. We will afresh accessible the curve for Q&A.

As you are aware, we may accomplish some advanced statements during this altercation as able-bodied as during the Q&A. These statements administer to approaching contest and are accountable to risks and uncertainties as able-bodied as added factors, which could annual absolute after-effects to alter materially from what is declared on the call. These risks and uncertainties and added factors are provided in the antithesis absolution and in the accelerate accouter as able-bodied as with added abstracts filed by the aggregation with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These abstracts can be activate on our website or at www.sec.gov.

I additionally appetence to point out that during today’s call, we will altercate some non-GAAP banking measures, which, we believe, are advantageous in evaluating our performance. You should not accede the presentation of this added advice in abreast or as a acting for after-effects able in accordance with GAAP. We accept provided reconciliations of commensurable GAAP to non-GAAP measures in the tables accompanying today’s antithesis release. And with that it’s my amusement to about-face the alarm over to Jeff to begin.

Jeff?

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Thank you, Karen, and acceptable morning, everyone. If I could accept you about-face to Accelerate 4. Q4 sales grew 7% to $23.6 million. In the quarter, we had a net accident of $4.6 million, which is primarily due to an crime allegation of $5.3 actor accompanying to our bartering nuclear annual business, which we’ve absitively to divest.

We’ve accomplished the action and are in austere negotiations with a abeyant buyer. Excluding the crime charge, we had net assets of $800,000 or $0.08 per share. Orders in the division were $21.6 actor acquiescent a $132.1 actor anniversary backlog, which while aloof beneath the Q3 excess was calmly a almanac for anniversary backlog. For the abounding year, acquirement grew 18% to $92 million.

Full-year net assets was a baby accident of $300,000, but was a $5 actor of assets aback excluding the aloft crime charge. Orders for the year were aloof aloft $101 million, and again, the excess at the end of the year at $132 million. On to Accelerate 5. Q4 antithesis were agnate to the aforementioned division aftermost year with a 7% college sales annual by lower gross margins, about 210 abject credibility beneath aftermost year’s Q4.

The lower margins was primarily due to the bartering nuclear annual business as able-bodied as one China project. Sales in the division were 70% domestic, 30% international, which compares to 66% calm and 34% all-embracing aftermost year. The agnate EBITDA and EPS numbers are adapted for the crime charge. On to Accelerate 6.

For the abounding year, sales added to $91.8 actor from $77.5 million. Sales were 65% domestic, 35% international, compared with 67% and 33%, respectively, aftermost year. As a ancillary note, our bartering nuclear business, which as I mentioned, we’re planning to sell, represented aloft 9% of budgetary year 2019 sales. Gross accumulation for the year was $21.9 million, up from $17 million, primarily due to college aggregate as able-bodied as 200 abject credibility college gross allowance at 23.9%.

SG&A was $17.9 million, up from $15.8 actor aftermost year as we are advance in our business for approaching growth. The adapted EBITDA allowance was $7.7 million, up from $5.4 actor aftermost year, and the adapted net assets per adulterated allotment or EPS was $0.51, compared with $0.18 aftermost year. If you could move to Accelerate 7. Our banknote position added $1.3 actor in budgetary year 2019 to $77.8 actor or $7.90 per share.

We had acceptable operating banknote flow, paid $3.8 actor in assets and spent $2.1 actor in basic spending in the year. In budgetary year 2020, we apprehend basic spending to be in the $2.5 actor to $2.8 actor range. Finally, as we attending at our antithesis breadth and our able banknote position, we abide to accept our business development team, our administration aggregation and our lath focused on the utilizing that antithesis breadth to opportunistically analyze and abutting on acquisitions, which accept both abreast and abiding allowances to our shareholders. We abide to be aflame about the opportunities that we’re seeing in our accretion pipeline.

Jim will now complete our presentation on budgetary year 2019 and animadversion on our angle for budgetary 2020. Acknowledge you.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Thank you, Jeff. Acceptable morning, everyone, and acknowledge you for abutting our fourth-quarter appointment call. I am acrimonious up breadth Jeff larboard off at Accelerate 9. Refinery and petrochemical end markets showed advance compared to a division and full-year comparison.

This principally was due to stronger action in our calm markets. For refinery sales, there was a acceptable mix of calm sales to absolute and to chip refiners. In best cases, these sales were for adapt and debottlenecking projects breadth refiners invested to advance either throughput or about-face of awkward oil to fuels. Important to agenda in full-year acquirement was backup and metallurgical upgrades from our installed abject in the Canadian oil bank region.

I highlight that because one adjustment was rather aloft and not necessarily repeatable. Division over quarter, adorning end bazaar sales were up $1.7 actor and for full-year sales, added than angled compared to those of budgetary 2018. Likewise, actinic and petrochemical end-market sales are up due to advancing backbone in our calm markets. Bargain accustomed gas in North America, which is a arch feedstock for the actinic industry, is what has spurred U.S.

investment in new accommodation and for revamping or debottlenecking the installed base. Actinic industry sales angled division over division and are up 20% on a full-year basis. Sales through added markets, including aegis are bottomward division over division and year on year. The primary annual for this, which we did abode a brace abode back, is a advance in artifact agenda for assertive argosy orders in backlog.

This impacted 2019 top band and additionally will appulse 2020. Argosy assignment can accept that occur, abnormally if orders are for new barge programs. 2019 sales were 65% of absolute — I’m sorry, 2019 calm sales were 65% of absolute for the abounding year and 70% in the quarter, which is agnate to 2018. If sales for the argosy end bazaar are extracted, which can ample calm sales, sales from 2018 and 2019 were 60% calm and 40% international.

Please about-face your absorption to Accelerate 10. The bottomward trend and abaft 12-month orders is due to chump timing. We had accepted stronger adjustment levels in the fourth division and additionally in April and May. However, adorning and assertive petrochemical barter pushed adjustment decisions.

We have, however, developed a ample befalling set of bids for all-embracing adorning end markets that is projected to abutting in the advancing quarters, and there is a cogent set of opportunities for U.S.-based petrochemical plants. We added to this blueprint the ablaze dejected trend line. It was difficult to calmly accept the trend of orders from Graham’s acceptable end markets that would exclude U.S. fleet and bartering nuclear annual end markets.

This is credible with the ablaze dejected line. And it shows that the abaft 12-month orders are up about 100% from the low watermark catastrophe the added division of 2018. While adjustment levels accept not been as able as we anticipated, the action for abeyant orders is strong, however, with a ample cardinal of projects plan to abutting in budgetary 2020, such that we advanced that excess will aggrandize aloft 2020. On to Accelerate 11.

Overall, and as Jeff had said, excess is at a abundant akin of $132 million. fleet orders are about bisected of the excess as of March 31. $8 actor of excess is for bartering nuclear annual business that is held-for-sale. Year on year, excess broadcast 12% with ample amplification of excess that is for actinic and petrochemical end markets.

Of the 7% of excess for ability end markets, 89% of that is accompanying to the held-for-sale bartering nuclear annual business. 55% to 60% of excess is planned to catechumen into sales in budgetary ’20; 10% to 15% is planned for budgetary ’20, ’21; and 25% to 35% aloft budgetary ’21. Amuse now about-face your absorption to Accelerate 12. Acquirement advice is amid $95 actor and $100 actor for budgetary 2020.

This excludes held-for-sale bartering nuclear annual business. This does represent 14% to 20% top-line growth. We are structured for greater top-line capability; however, adjustment timing in January through today hasn’t played out. I mentioned advanced that barter pushed adjustment adjustment decisions.

In assertive cases, the push, we believe, is aloof a brace of months and in others a brace of quarters. Nonetheless, with order-to-shipment aeon for ample action orders actuality 12 to 18 months, these adjustment adjustment delays annual us to adjudicator 2020 top band to be in the $95 actor to $100 actor range. Gross allowance clay is 23% to 24%. I do ambition to accommodate some ambience for why gross allowance is set at this level.

As I noted, we are structured for greater top-line adequacy and added cadre plan for 2020 will be added based on our multi-year angle for the argosy end bazaar and the advance that our adorning and actinic end-market bid action offers. I advanced acclaimed that we are anticipating year-on-backlog amplification for budgetary 2020 year-end. Thus, cadre adds now are necessary. It isn’t consistently accessible to adjust cadre add — additions altogether with agnate revenue.

I am advance now for architecture a bigger, bigger Graham and consequently, that will burden allowance in 2020. Projected SG&A absorb is $17 actor and $18 actor for budgetary 2020. Our able tax bulk will be about 20%. Omar, amuse accessible the band now for questions.

Thank you.

Operator

[Operator instructions] Our aboriginal catechism comes from Theodore O’Neill from Litchfield. Amuse advance with your question.

Theodore O’Neill — Litchfield Hills Research, LLC — Analyst

Thank you. Acceptable morning.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Good morning, Theo.

Theodore O’Neill — Litchfield Hills Research, LLC — Analyst

Jeff, I accept a catechism for you on the activity animate business. So in budgetary third-quarter 2018, you recorded an crime allegation of about $15 actor adjoin it. And you’re analysis at that time that it was because of the assignment abeyance at the Virgil C. Summer nuclear ability bulb acquired by the defalcation at Westinghouse Electric.

Was it the final attach in the casket for Activity Steel? Or is it business ambiance worsened?

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Theo, acknowledgment for your question. As you’ve mentioned, we did accept a writedown in the third division of budgetary 2018. At that point in time, it was — what was occurring with Westinghouse, what was occurring with the new bills in North America and the bazaar had attenuated some. Over the aftermost 15 months, we accept seen, for us the bazaar attenuated further.

And as the nuclear promise, focus of the nuclear industry has occurred, it became credible to us that they’re activity to be beneath suppliers and it’s activity to be bottomward burden on appraisement in that bazaar and we aloof acquainted that we were not well-positioned and able-bodied chip abundant — angular chip abundant in that bazaar to be successful. So the bazaar has worsened and additionally we’ve concluded up in a position that was not favorable for us to abide with that market.

Theodore O’Neill — Litchfield Hills Research, LLC — Analyst

OK. And activity forward, will that aloof be recorded as a distinct band as discontinued operations? Or is that activity to be still allotment of the accomplished P&L?

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

In the actual term, it will be in the P&L. Aback you attending at the antithesis sheet, you will see asset captivated for auction as one band and accountability held-for-sale as addition line, but it will be aural the P&L. It’s not advised a discontinued operations from an accounting standpoint. Our apprehension is to accept this auction completed possibly this division or hopefully not too far into the added quarter.

But we’re targeting accepting the auction completed alluringly by the end of the aboriginal quarter.

Theodore O’Neill — Litchfield Hills Research, LLC — Analyst

OK. On the antithesis sheet, this is fourth division in a row breadth you’ve had added than $20 actor in inventories. And can you allocution about the alpha of this? And if this is a new normal?

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Sure. If you would go aback and attending at the antithesis breadth as of the end of aftermost budgetary year, you would see a decidedly lower bulk of inventory, but you would additionally see a decidedly lower bulk of chump deposits. One of the changes which occurred with the new acquirement acceptance rules was that we could no best on the antithesis breadth net out the chump deposits, which were accurately acclimated to acquirement annual on the antithesis breadth itself. So it acclimated to be we would net out a allocation of chump deposits adjoin inventory.

And afresh if you attending in the footnotes, you would see, here’s the gross inventory, here’s the net inventory, netted for those chump deposits. We are no best accustomed to do that. So you would accept credible in the division that concluded in June and afresh consecutive quarters, a big footfall up in both annual about in the adjacency of $10 million, and a footfall up in chump deposits of a agnate amount. So annihilation has afflicted from an operation standpoint.

It’s artlessly how we are now appropriate to annual for it.

Theodore O’Neill — Litchfield Hills Research, LLC — Analyst

OK. Acknowledgment actual much.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Sure.

Operator

Our abutting catechism comes from Joe Mondillo, Sidoti & Company. Amuse advance with your question.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

Hi, Jim, Jeff. Acceptable morning. 

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Good morning, Joe.

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Good morning, Joe.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

So I was aloof basic to ask you about the chemical, petro adjustment trends that you accept credible and array of aloof apprehensive what affectionate of timing this has transpired? And aloof about to the year — the agenda year itself, is there any affair or anguish aloof apropos animation in oil prices and aloof the accepted abridgement all-embracing that these projects could be put aback — back-burnered for a while or abide to be pushed out?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Joe, this is Jim. We don’t necessarily accept that affair while we are attractive at the all-embracing economy, seeing if it’s slowing bottomward and if that will appulse the clip of adjustment decisions. What we can adjudicator from the contacts that we accept had with our barter is, it’s not a near-term bread-and-butter accommodation that was causing them to advance adjustment decisions to the right. Some of it had to do with M&A that was activity on aural our end markets by our barter and afresh acumen their businesses and aloof cat-and-mouse until they absitively what assets went where.

We ahead that’s now abaft a brace of barter that should accredit them to move advanced with the projects that are installed-based revamps, restarting some abandoned plants or accretion the adequacy of absolute plants. We ahead those are actual able projects. There is annihilation suggesting that that won’t go ahead. And additionally some added assignment in the petrochemical space, about new capacity, that seems actual solid to us, not affected to back-burner or actuality shelved, which absolutely would be the concern.

We still feel actual optimistic that the adjustment ambiance aloft budgetary ’20 will construe into excess amplification in a allusive way.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

OK. And afresh on the oil adorning ancillary of things, the orders accept been array of adequately abiding if you booty out the added quarter, which is a appealing big quarter. What you see activity on in that market, abnormally with oil prices absolutely actuality abundant — added airy alive that, I apperceive that a ample allotment of your barter are the chip companies and airy oil prices do aftereffect their businesses and how they administer them? So what are you audition aural that ancillary of the business?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Refining on the all-embracing advanced about new capacity, we are actual aflame about the bulk of assignment we’ve articular and that we are bidding. And that we will participate in, at atomic with the behest process, and that we achievement to defended for Asia, India, China, abroad in Asia. And there’s a actual ample set of opportunities that are projected to abutting in 2020. And afresh additionally on the calm front, we absolutely don’t see a behavioral change by our end markets there.

The independents will abide to advance and try and accretion means to advance throughput and get added fuels out of a butt of oil. And the added chip refiners, I don’t see abundant change there either. And so absolutely North America seems abiding to us. So it appears to be abiding with a footfall up in pet chem.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

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OK. Great. And afresh on the fleet ancillary of things. In the accomplished brace of quarters, it seems like some assignment has been pushed out due to timing afterwards the abode body and abysmal builds accept been array of progressing.

Can you accord us an amend on that? And how you’re cerebration about how array of assignment or your shipments array of trend over the abutting several abode or brace of years?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

With the adjustments that we fabricated and we batten about, I think, it was two abode ago. We are now attractive at aloft 20 of adequately abiding quarter-to-quarter acquirement level, accepting now adapted how the excess should convert. And afresh it should activate to aggrandize in ’21 and ’22. Aloof by way of allegory from a asperous perspective, FY — budgetary ’20 argosy acquirement should be commensurable to that of ’18 and ’17, and will be almost alert what it was in ’19.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

OK. Great. That does it for me for now. Acknowledgment for demography my questions.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

You’re actual welcome. Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Our abutting catechism comes from Tate Sullivan, Maxim Group. Amuse advance with your question.

Tate Sullivan — Maxim Group — Analyst

Hi, acknowledge you. Acknowledgment for that detail on the fleet acquirement progression. And it sounds like it’s abiding for ’20. What are — are there any variables to the timing of commitment to the accessories that you’re authoritative for the accepted aircraft and abysmal schedules? And what happened afore against what are the risks that article agnate can appear afresh in ’20, please, for fleet orders?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Sure. The primary accident about excess about-face for our argosy assignment is about new barge program, which is the architecture accomplishment and activity through the authoritative approval action to arise artifact or the abutting stages of fabrication, that can be an beheading risk. And that represents, annular numbers, maybe bisected of our excess business, barge program. The added built-to-print work, we’re on echo orders that has a added anticipated breeze of excess conversion.

And afresh importantly, as we attending at the opportunities that are alpha to appearance up in the bid pipeline, we do advanced that there will be some ample new orders that could appear into our excess aloft budgetary ’20.

Tate Sullivan — Maxim Group — Analyst

OK. Acknowledge you for that. I ahead I saw it. I ahead it was Huntington afresh started accomplishing their — acid the animate for the aboriginal Columbia-class submarine.

Correct me if I am wrong, but accept you accustomed any ambience for abeyant margins on your fleet assignment against your added work? I accept if you cannot.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

No. We absolutely haven’t at a quantitative level. Added directionally, we accept adumbrated that the argosy assignment tends to backpack a college gross margin; however, will alloy as the out allowance satisfactorily. But we’ve not giving any specifics on that for aggressive affidavit and analytic reasons.

Tate Sullivan — Maxim Group — Analyst

OK. Acknowledge you. And the aftermost one for me. Separately, I see you application some of your ability bulb business.

I ahead it’s actual 11% of your ability projects in backlog. How is that different? I beggarly besides actuality a altered blazon of plant, is it altered types of accessories for altered types of ability plants? Or what are you retaining? And why did you adjudge to absorb that, please?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Sure. Our held-for-sale apparatus of our excess are accompanying to the bartering nuclear annual market. We additionally serve in the ability market, renewable cogeneration, aural renewable is geothermal, decay energy, that’s the allotment of the ability articulation that we are retaining, which has a altered execution, altered sales model, altered affection programs than would the nuclear bazaar sales.

Tate Sullivan — Maxim Group — Analyst

OK. Acknowledge you actual much. Accept a acceptable day.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

You’re welcome.

Operator

[Operator instructions] Our abutting catechism comes from Bill Baldwin, Baldwin Anthony Securities. Amuse advance with your question.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

Good morning, Jim and Jeff.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Good morning, Bill.

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Good morning, Bill.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

Excuse me. Can we still assignment with the ambition gross allowance attractive out to affectionate of aiguille aeon in the 30% area? Is that still a reasonable expectation?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

We accept not confused off of that eyes and that expectation. What has to accompany that admitting Bill, aloof as a animadversion or reminder, is a stronger adjustment ambiance that afresh enables a stronger appraisement environment. And that about accompanies the gross allowance account that afresh move out…

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

Right. Right. Well, based on your commentary, things abundant affectionate of as I accepted 2020/’21 that will be appealing acceptable ambiance for new adjustment growth, do you ahead that ambiance will be acceptable to abutment the affectionate of gross margins that your expecting, Jim?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

We are absolutely added encouraged about the admeasurement of our bid pipeline, our perceived timing of adjustment adjustment and the affection of the assignment that we apprehend to win. It’s going; to appear down, too. I don’t appetence to be evasive. As we talked about over the — in the past, new accommodation has a altered allowance contour than installed-base work.

International adorning assignment has a altered allowance contour than calm adorning work. Pet chem has lowe allowance contour than adorning work. So there is a lot of variables at play. But from our qualitative or directional perspective, we are assured that we should see advance in gross allowance afterwards we get through ’20.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

Very good. On the fleet bin, as you adumbrated about bisected of your excess was new vessels, new capacity. I didn’t accept absolutely breadth you adumbrated the added half? M&A from what affectionate of work?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

I apparently didn’t allege actual clearly. The argosy programs, there are echo builds for accustomed barge programs breadth the architecture is already set. And afresh there is a new barge affairs breadth they’re architecture the aboriginal barge and the new chic of vessels. So we accept some assignment that’s for the aboriginal barge of a new class, and that has a added affected and a added staged engineering beheading time frame.

The built-to-print, we alarm it that for description, has a added alike beheading flow.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

Right. OK. Now aback you allocution about potentially a allusive aces up in your fleet business in 2020, is that accompanying to new vessels? Or a aggregate of new added your repeatable blazon business?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

That would be — and aloof to authorize that that was on the adjustment front. That would be…

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

Right. So I am attractive on the adjustment front?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

That would be for both apparent ships and submarines, principally apparent ship.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

But would those be new designs or designs you’ve already got on to box there?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

They would be designs that we already accept completed.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

So it’ll be your repeatable business then.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Right.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

OK. Appealing good. I know, at one point in one of the antecedent appointment calls, you adumbrated that you are adorning out your acknowledgment to abeyant fleet markets. Is that what we are potentially attractive at in 2020 and beyond? Some examples of that?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Well, we appetence to aggrandize our accumulation aural the programs that we are currently in organically. And afresh we’re additionally attractive at how we can anatomy with M&A to get added of the argosy absorb on the barge programs or accompanying programs that we are in. So one is, again, accomplishing accomplishments and cardinal initiatives to accretion added of the absorb for what we commonly can build. And afresh secondarily, because of the backbone we see in the multi-decade barge affairs and the acumen the fleet has with our capabilities and the affection of our organization, can we accompaniment what we currently do with acceptable artefact through an M&A approach.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

OK. Well, best of success with those programs. And I guess, aloof one aftereffect question. Does the SG&A advice that we’re attractive at, does that accept your — all your added cadre costs included in it? — alibi me, Jim, included in there? Or do you added cadre that would be advancing up in 2020 admitting — appearance up in 2021?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Right. The models that we’ve accustomed in the advice reflects the appetence that we accept for abacus cadre in this accepted ambiance and the projected ’21-’22 environment. So we’ve congenital that into our guidance.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

So you’re appealing able-bodied breadth you appetence to be afresh as far as cadre in that regard?

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Bill, this is Jeff. Aloof to interject, the advice that Jim mentioned does accept headcount in there. What the advice does not accept is annihilation accompanying to our bartering nuclear annual business. So there will be some SG&A that has impacted the aggregation in antecedent year’s financials, which would not appulse the aggregation in budgetary year 2020.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

So the 2020 guidance, if I understand, that does not includes SG&A from Activity Steel?

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

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Correct.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Right, the $17 actor to $18 actor excludes the held-for-sale aspect of business.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

Right. Aloof like the revenues exclude that business also.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

And it incorporates our eyes of abacus cadre that go into the SG&A bulk centers. So you shouldn’t advanced us to move aloft the $17 actor to $18 actor with the cadre adds that I cited. It’s already congenital in that absorb in the guidance.

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

Very good. Acknowledge you actual much. 

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

You’re welcome.

Operator

Our abutting catechism comes from Joe Mondillo, Sidoti & Company. Amuse advance with your question.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

Hi, guys. Aloof a brace of aftereffect questions. I’m analytical to speaking on activity steel. If the denial would be accretive to gross allowance and/or antithesis this year? Not abiding if you appetence to allocution about that or admit that, but I’d be analytical to know.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Accretive to 2020 or accretive had it not been in ’19 — sorry, what’s the question?

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

Either way, either way. About you appetence to anatomy it?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Should we be able to bankrupt of activity steel, it will be accretive to our margins on a look-back basis.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

OK. And afresh I additionally basic to ask aloof on array of banknote catechism on your array of your banknote flow. It seems like you may accept — the aftermost brace of years you’ve absolutely credible alive basic as a antecedent of cash. With the ramp-up in the fleet assignment and maybe alike in the petrochem, are you anticipating any absorb in banknote for alive capital? And afresh I additionally basic — I was apprehensive what your capex account will be this year?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Joe, this is Jim. We would not advanced burning of banknote angry to our advance strategies. As you ability recall, we do try to anatomy advance payments in a abode in which helps us armamentarium accretion of long-lead materials, but we about accept had around-the-clock advance in antithesis breadth banknote alike while we’ve grown. It ability be a division that has an odd use of cash, but over an continued aeon of time, we’re not envisioning our operating archetypal alteration materially breadth we would absorb banknote as we grew.

And afresh on the capex side, Jeff, you appetence to animadversion on that?

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Sure. Joe, capex is targeted to be amid $2.5 actor and $2.8 actor in budgetary ’20. Aloof afterward on Jim’s question, if you would go aback over the aftermost decade, you will see that our banknote position appealing abundant added best every year. I ahead there was one year in there breadth we had and we alarm that out a actual ample chump drop in one year and activated it the abutting year, but added than that our banknote position is appealing always added whether we were in a acceptable allotment of the bazaar or weaker allotment of the market.

And as we are advancing aback into a little bit of a bigger allotment of the market, we would apprehend banknote breeze to abide to be able and banknote position to abide to increase.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

Right. Yeah, I’m not absolutely too anxious of that. I was accurately allurement added so on alive capital. How you see alive basic turn? Aftermost brace of years, it has been a antecedent of banknote and I was aloof asking, as you access up this fleet — your fleet assignment and maybe some of the petrochem does alive capital, is that become a little added — do you accept to advance a little added in your alive capital?

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

A little bit, but to Jim’s point, we try to tie our projects payments to the assignment that we are accomplishing so. And additionally as Jim mentioned, you will see abode breadth we move, but I ahead if you attending over budgetary years we would not see a cogent change in our alive basic over any aeon of time.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

And the phenomena that you saw — the actual archetypal phenomena and as we go into a abatement and afresh if you attending at how Graham comes out of a abatement into an expansion. In our past, again, we haven’t had actual alive basic changes, but we would not advanced that again.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

OK. And afresh aloof lastly, you array of addressed it briefly aloof in agreement of the banknote position all-embracing and abeyant array of accretion targets. It sounds like, I apperceive you’ve talked about in the accomplished and aloof did afresh targeting assertive opportunities to booty advantage of this argosy build-out. But any added array of commentary, it has acutely been a while breadth we haven’t credible abundant advance from the outside.

But I’m abiding there is some things activity on internally, not abiding if you can accommodate any added blush on array of the M&A opportunity?

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Joe, yeah, I accept it can be arresting from the alfresco attractive in that annihilation has occurred, but we accept been actual alive over the accomplished 18 months or so and abide to be actual alive in both the argosy — decidedly the argosy sector, but additionally attractive at some aftermarket opportunities in the bartering sector. So we are actual active. We’ve talked in the accomplished year or two about opportunities that we are affective out and ultimately we bald off on. So again, that could be arresting from the outside.

But I assure you that the bulk of accomplishment that our business development aggregation and myself and Jim alone are spending is decidedly greater today than it has been a brace of years back. And we aloof bare to accomplish abiding we accretion that appropriate fit for Graham and move forward. But appropriate now, we’re actual active. It’s aloof until article ultimately moves advanced to closure, it’s adamantine to say abundant aloft that.

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

OK. Understand. Acknowledgment a lot. Acknowledge it.

Operator

Our abutting catechism comes from Bill Nicklin from Circle N Advisors. Amuse advance with your question.

Bill Nicklin — Circle N Advisors, LLC — Analyst

Good morning.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Good morning, Bill. 

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Good morning, Bill.

Bill Nicklin — Circle N Advisors, LLC — Analyst

Good. I’ve got aloof one question. If we attending at the new backroom of barter and consider, let’s say, pet chem and refining, what affectionate of changes ability you expect? And when, and where, and what agreement you’re barter are activity to be architecture in?

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

It’s a acceptable question, complicated question. Our appearance is, as the — on pet-chem, the investments absolutely chronicle to breadth is the lowest-cost augment — breadth is the bargain feedstock. And appropriate now that’s North America and that’s the Middle East. So we don’t anticipate abundant change in breadth investments will accumulate there.

Around barter backroom and in the all-embracing markets, they still will add pet-chem accommodation for their growing and arising economies. Again, we don’t see that activating alteration materially. And afresh on the adorning front, as we cited earlier, India and China are ramping up for some actual ample new accommodation adds. I don’t see all-around backroom or barter modifying that, as they advance to amuse their bounded consumption.

They are not expert-oriented nations. The Middle East, of course, is export-oriented. They will activate their abutting beachcomber of adorning investment, we think, in brace of added years. So really, Bill, on the overall, my circumlocutory acknowledgment is, I guess, I don’t feel as abundant change of bottom for us.

Bill Nicklin — Circle N Advisors, LLC — Analyst

OK, that’s good. I was aloof allurement because you apprehend babble all the time regarding, decidedly from the busline companies that are attractive about were petrochemicals are activity to be sourced and breadth they’re activity to be delivered and are the roots activity to change. So China may say, able-bodied we don’t buy abundant or any ethylene from the U.S. It would assume to me that it would accept an abrogating appulse here, but maybe a absolute appulse some abode abroad breadth maybe raw actual would be still sourced from North America, but the actinic plants ability be congenital some abode abroad and therefore, you could accept a auto in your business bottomward the road.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Sure. That’s all — that’s possible. What we are anecdotic now is the, as we said a moment ago, it’s absolutely a chase to where’s the bargain feedstock and chief the plants there. And afresh the arising economies aggravating to abode bounded appeal with bounded accumulation with new accommodation there.

Bill Nicklin — Circle N Advisors, LLC — Analyst

All right. Actual good. Acknowledge you actual much.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Thank you, Bill.

Operator

We accept accomplished the end of the question-and-answer session, and I’ll now about-face the alarm aback over to administration for closing remarks.

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Thank you, Omar. And acknowledge you, everyone, for your questions this morning. As we talked through our fourth division and the accommodation we fabricated on Activity Steel. We acknowledge the abyss of your questions and afresh your aftereffect questions.

And we attending advanced to afterlight you in August. Acknowledge you.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 11 minutes

Karen Howard — Broker Relations

Jeff Glajch — Arch Banking Officer

Jim Curve — Admiral and Arch Controlling Officer

Theodore O’Neill — Litchfield Hills Research, LLC — Analyst

Joe Mondillo — Sidoti and Aggregation — Analyst

Tate Sullivan — Maxim Group — Analyst

Bill Baldwin — Baldwin Anthony Securities — Analyst

Bill Nicklin — Circle N Advisors, LLC — Analyst

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